Philippe Guinaudeau

Philippe Guinaudeau

The meaning of numbers

I had this interesting discussion yesterday with a very good friend of mine. It was about the results of a movie at the Box office, and its translation into the popularity of the brand.

You see, 2 movies may get the same results at the box office and show very different popularities when it comes to licensing potential. My demonstration:

The first movie will target preschoolers and children (3 to 8 years old), while the second will target teenagers and adults.

The first movie will be released in 4,400 theatres at best and have an opening weekend at $183million. The second movie will be released in 4,100 theatres at best and have an opening weekend at $202million. Already you’ll have noticed a slight better performance in the second movie vs. the first one.

But where it matters to us, and the potential of the brand as a franchise, is that viewers registered in the box office of the second movie were all right on target; viewers registered in the first movie would split into the right target (kids) and their parent (at least one), as some can assume they are too young to go to the theatres by themselves.

And so, when looking at the popularity of the brand in the different target groups, you will understand the box office alone will not explain it. We’d need to understand a great deal more about the target, for starters!

And to complete my point, the exact same type of patterns can be applied to TV watching. Do not assume that one metric – ratings or GRPs / Tops – would be the only point to consider when evaluating the performance of a brand. Consider also the quality of attention paid to the brand during its showing, the level of multi-tasking that is likely to take place throughout, where it’ll be watched, which screen it’ll be watched on, who might also be present and who watching over the shoulder.

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